Jung-Chen Chou

 This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on hydropower generation on Dajia river serial hydropower plants. With the understanding of the variation of hydropower generation under climate change situation, it can provide possible power shortage information in the future. The serial hydroelectric power plants here are most important hydroelectric power facilities to support the peak load of the power system in Taiwan. Under the possible threat of climate change, people may face a huge electricity supply deficit, if the hydropower is diminished in the future. The hydrologic model and the possible variation of rainfall and temperature calculated through the GCM downscaling data (7 GCMs under A1B scenario) are used to estimate the future inflows of the reservoirs. With a suitable operation rule simulation of the serial hydroelectric plants, the variation of the hydropower under climate change scenario can be estimated.

    In order to explore the uncertainty caused by the generating meteorological data in next twenty years, the 20–year rainfall and temperature which are generated thirty times simulate the flow and hydropower generation. By the hypothesis testing, the future hydropower generation of mostly months have significant different when compared with baseline data. According to the results of MME data, the hydropower generation will represent a decrease of about 15% during dry season (Nov to Apr) and 6% during wet season (May to Oct.)

Keywords: climate change, hydropower generation, reservoir model